by Roohullah Rahimi, Center for Afghanistan Progress, Ottawa
The Afghan calendar, which counts the days since the Prophet Mohammad was forced into exile from his beloved Mecca, turns to 1387. As Afghans celebrate the dawn of a new year, the perils and legacy of 1386 looms large and overshadows the hopes of a nation in destitute. In the face of continued misfortune, New Year celebrations in Afghanistan are characterized by jubilant prayers for peace and prosperity, a testament to the resilience and bravery of Afghans; but fortune has turned a blind eye to the continued plight of Afghans, much in the same way as the rest of the world.
1386 was characterized by an impasse on the humanitarian and political fronts while security took a turn for the worst throughout the country. 1386 was marked by incessant insurgent attacks against both government and civilian targets, which left over 8000 civilian deaths and much doubt in the minds of Afghans about the future of the country. Over 100 suicide attacks, which were particularly devastating this year, demonstrated once again the pernicious nature of the insurgency. One such attack took the lives of over 100 school children and 6 members of Parliament in the town of Baghlan. The persistence of the insurgency has dashed early euphoria about the prospects of progress in the country and has shaken the will of some NATO members.
The latter effect is of particular concern to many Afghans who understand the utility of continued international engagement in their country. Continued engagement of the international community is imperative for the long term stability of Afghanistan. It is important that such engagement is conducted not in pursuit of perceived national interests, but out of a sense of mutual interest in the long term stability of a country that not long ago was home to the most notorious Islamic militants. Where women and minorities had little stake in the affairs of the country, where the rule of law was the rule of the gun, and where the lack of international interest and scrutiny facilitated the transition of Afghanistan from a failed state to a narco-state to the hub for international terrorism. As NATO waivers in its commitment to Afghanistan, the insurgents are emboldened and the Government of Afghanistan weakened.
Another bitter legacy of 1386 was the Musa Qala peace agreement between the British forces and the Taliban: a great victory for the Taliban led insurgency. While, the central government was able to retake Musa Qala from the Taliban, the town remains under virtual siege as anti-government elements continue to control the surrounding areas. The peace deal further invigorated and credited the Taliban movement and solidified their renewed strength at the expense of the Government of Afghanistan. The climax of bad relations between the UK and the Government of Afghanistan instigated by the Musa Qala peace deal was reached when the government deported two UK nationals on charges of collaborating with the Taliban.
The extension of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan until 2011 came after a great deal of dialogue on the issue of ‘burden sharing’ within NATO. When did Afghanistan become a burden is a question of the priorities set by the decision makers, but this transformation could come with a great cost for the Afghan people and the international community. While Afghanistan drifts to mediocrity in importance to the international community, the threats that merited the engagement of the US and NATO seems very much still prevalent.
While the spring of 1386 witnessed a great resurgence in militant activity, the summer proved as tumultuous on the political front. The Karzai government was shaken internally by the creation of a new opposition front known as the ‘United Front’ which included among its ranks some cabinet members and the first Vice-President Ahmad Zia Masoud. While political opposition groups are an important part of democracies, the impact of this new entity on the Karzai government remains to be seen.
Winter of 1386 witnessed unprecedented cold weather, causing a major humanitarian crisis for an underprivileged population. Most harm was done to the thousands of internally displaced persons scattered in the peaceful regions of the country. Thousands were killed and many more including children, lost their limbs to frost bite among many other effects; such humanitarian crisis in a country supposedly in the forefront of international reconstruction commitments point to the structural deficiencies and methods through which these commitments are projected.
The year was not entirely the realization of a cynical dream, notable positive developments occurred in the area of rural development, basic health care has been extended to remote corners of Afghanistan and there have been symbolic improvements in Pak-Afghan relations. The Pak-Afghan peace Jirga was held over the summer of 1389 in Kabul, which brought tribal elders from both side of the Durand line. While this event will be held again in Pakistan in 1387, so far the situation in the tribal belt has not improved markedly, if anything security has deteriorated in tribal areas in Pakistan.
The economy continues to enjoy a healthy growth rate, and the process of extracting the natural resources of Afghanistan began with a 30 year lease agreement between the Government of Afghanistan and a Chinese state mining company for the Aynak copper mine in the Logar province. In addition to creating thousands of jobs in the region this agreement will bring $400 million per year in taxes to the country. .
While life goes on in Afghanistan, early rapid improvements in the years following the ouster of Taliban have largely stagnated. 1387 is bound to be an important year and an opportunity for the Government of Afghanistan to assume more authority with respect to international engagement in the country and the manner in which development aid is spent. 1387 will also be the last year of Karzai’s first term as president, and opposition political parties are bound to highlight the short comings of the Karzai Government. Most importantly however, 1387 can be a new beginning for the government to attempt to address the Taliban led insurgency. How this will happen will largely depend on the conduct and cooperation of the international community.
